If Christie Runs... What to Expect Locally

UPDATED: SEE BELOW

OK, so there is enough desperation among some elements of the national Republican Party about the questionable prospects of their current announced Presidential candidates that there is new buzz that our half-term Governor Chris Christie may be thinking about entering the race.

I won’t presume to speculate much about his prospects, or the impact on national politics for 2012; that’s not usually my beat, so to speak. I can ruminate a little about the impact on our tiny little town, at least in the short run.

For one thing, count on a much bigger presence in Trenton of the national and international press, print as well as TV. This is the town where Christie works, this is where the press will base their operations to find out more about the man and his two years in office. After the first set of important questions from reporters – “What do you mean there’s only one Hotel in town?” “Where can we go to eat?” “Where can we go to drink?” – count on the press to spend all their time digging into what the man has been doing here, or not doing.

Of course that means talking to everyone in the State government, within the Legislature and and the Executive. It also means that reporters and columnists who have been covering the Statehouse beat during the Christie Administration will become instant “experts” on our Governor and all of the quaint local customs and Byzantine relationships that make up politics, Jersey style.

Unhappy people always make for great stories, so you can count on seeing officials from the NJ teachers’ as well as public employees’ unions become household names nationwide. Hearing from disgruntled and angry union officials is red meat for Republican primary voters nationwide, so that prospect will likely seem pretty attractive for the Christie camp right now. It will play to the perceived strengths of their man.

This story, not so much. Over the last several decades, support from police and fire unions has typically gone to Republican candidates, who have enjoyed – rightly or wrongly – reputations as being strong on “law and order.” The prospect of over 700 unhappy and potentially bitter laid-off police officers – 108 of them from the police force of Christie’s Capital City, remember! – out there to speak to the press, perhaps show up to demonstrate at Christie rallies, has to be of some concern to Christie supporters. I don’t know if they are prepared to take heat from a constituency – police officers – who have typically been loyal Republicans for several decades now.

And then, there’s Trenton. Chris Christie’s persona is that of the new Sheriff in town, who strode into town and single-handedly shook up and cleaned up the way things worked in New Jersey. That’s the image that he and his supporters want to take national: a tough guy, often bombastic and bullying, but someone who gets results. The City of Trenton works against that image, big time. Right in Christie’s own capital city is a local administration that, apart from being visibly (and entertainingly!) incompetent, shows increasing traits of being fundamentally corrupt. As long as Chris Christie tolerates the current state of affairs in his Capital City, it seriously works against any attempt to build a national image.

I can see the national press eating this up. The story just writes itself: “Chris Christie talks tough, but can he be taken seriously if he tolerates a situation as bad as the Mack Administration in his own backyard?” I could easily see a scenario where prosecutors might move against local corruption as a precursor to a national campaign.

Hey, it worked for Christie in 2009, when he was running for Governor! He could do no less now, if he decides to run for President? If I were Tony Mack, all this Christie candidacy talk would be making me real, real nervous.

Now, I must say I can’t stand Chris Christie. His major accomplishment so far consists of “improving” the financial condition of the State of New Jersey by pushing costs and unsustainable tax increases downwards, to the poor County, Town and City governments of this still-wealthy State, while sparing the interests of the wealthiest individuals and companies. Our schools, museums, roads and towns deteriorate; police and fire departments lay off hundreds; but Chris Christie gets to hit the road to places like the Reagan Library and give speeches about what a great job he’s doing for Jersey.

At the end of the day, I would expect him not to run. I think he must recognize that in the less than two years he’s been our Governor he’s accumulated a lot of baggage that would weigh him down in a national run.

If he does declare himself to be a candidate, expect all kinds of attention and activity locally. Should be quite some show.

UPDATE: Fox News – which knows about these things – is reporting that Christie has announced he is NOT running in 2012.

Which is too bad for Trenton, because that means we can look forward to more bullshit like this. Sending the cops to intimidate city employees not in the Mayor’s favor seems to be a favorite tactic (see, “Staton, Cordelia”). Which, of course, does not make this arrogant show of force by state-unapproved “Acting” Director of Public Works Harold Hall any easier to stomach.

Hey, Governor, even though you’re not running for President, can you do something for us poor slobs in the Capital City?